Loading governed environmental evidence…
Tigris–Euphrates · Iraq focus · Türkiye and Syria upstream
Local technical review · no official warning or institutional publication
Reading the saved brief…
Local deterministic assessment · generative model blocked · not an official warning
Next 24-hour window compared with the first 24 hours of the same run. This is forecast variation, not observed change.
Area-weighted forecast over the source polygon; not a city-centre cell. Temperature is instantaneous, not a daily mean.
First window · Baghdad: — — —
Comparison window: — — —
Upstream precipitation may warrant review. Quantifying runoff, arrival or reservoir effects requires snow, soil, reach and operating evidence that is not yet available.
IMERG has no usable integrated raster. Snow change is unavailable. The unverified Baghdad discharge is excluded from this assessment.
Stored CMORPH rainfallRecipient progress and overdue work are available within authorized scope. Public absence of cases does not establish safety. Training remains separate.
Open follow-upTraining accessHydroBASINS v1c level 5 original polygons; footprint intersections weighted using a spherical equal-area projection. Local descriptive review only. No generalized display geometry enters these statistics or any operational trigger.
Geographic source and auditEvidence cutoff: — · Latest successful assessment run: —
ECMWF · CC BY 4.0 · Forecast, not observation. MOSMIX shares IFS lineage.
This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). © 2026 ECMWF. Cropped, unit-converted and aggregated locally. ECMWF does not accept liability for errors, availability or resulting loss.
Source terms and full disclaimer